Summary
• Trade disputes and geopolitical frictions have become key drivers of the economy and markets. U.S. trade policy has become increasingly unpredictable. Recent geopolitical volatility – including attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure – underscores this message from our Midyear Outlook.
무역분쟁+지정학적 마찰은 미국경제와 시장의 키. 미국 무역 정책이 점점 예상 불가로감. 최근 지정학적 변동성 - 사우디 오일 공격 까지 포함해서 - 은 이 메세지를 강조함
• Persistent uncertainty from protectionist policies is denting corporate confidence and slowing business spending. Yet we still believe the economic expansion is intact, supported by dovish central banks and a robust U.S. consumer. This suggests moderate risk-taking will likely be rewarded – even as recent events reinforce our call for a greater focus on portfolio resilience.
보호정책의 지속적인 불확실성은 기업신뢰? 자신감? 을 훼손시키고 비즈니스 스펜딩을 느리게 한다. 그래도 경제확장은 아직 유효하다, supported by 비둘기파적인 중앙은행과 미국 소비자들은 아직 로버스트함. 이정도의 약한 또는 적당한 온건한 리스크 테이킹은 보상받을듯..
• We expect more Federal Reserve rate cuts, but believe markets are pricing in too much monetary easing. The ECB materially exceeded market expectations on stimulus, launching a broad package with a combined impact that should be greater than the sum of its parts.
연준 금리인하를 예상하지만 시장은 통화완화에 너무 프라이싱을 많이한다. 유럽은해
• We do not believe monetary policy alone is a cure for the fallout from global trade tensions. Supply chain disruptions could deliver a hit to productive capacity that fosters mildly higher inflation even as growth slows. This complicates the case for further policy easing.
통화정책 하나로는 글로벌 무역텐션을 큐어할수 없다고 본다. 공급체인에 disruptions 는 생산 캐파에 영향을 줄것이다. 성장이 느려지면서. 이는 정책완화를 까다롭게할듯.
• Overall, we favor reducing risk amid the ongoing protectionist push. We prefer U.S. equities for their reasonable valuations and relatively high quality; and the min vol and quality factors for their defensive properties. We like EM debt for its coupon income. We are overweight euro area sovereigns: a relatively steeper yield curve brightens their appeal even at low yields. And we see government bonds as important portfolio stabilizers.
유럽국채가 좋은듯. 스티퍼한 일드커브는 일드가 일단 낮아도 매력적임. 그리고 정부채는 중요한 포트폴리오의 안정제임.
our 2019 investment themes
Protectionist push – The substantial escalation in the U.S.-China conflict – and unpredictability of U.S. policy actions – have injected additional uncertainty into business planning, threatening to weaken economic activity. Market implication: We favour reducing risk, including raising some cash.
Stretching the cycle - Central banks have pivoted to easing. The recordlong U.S. economic expansion is supported by healthy household spending and looks unlikely to morph into a deeper downturn any time soon. Market implication: We like U.S. equities and EM debt.
Raising resilience – Portfolio resilience is crucial at a time of elevated macro uncertainty. Market implication: Government bonds play an important role in building portfolio resilience – even at low yield levels.
무역분쟁이 불확실성 갖고오니까 리스크를 낮춰야한다. 현금비중 늘려라.
사이클 연장. 중앙은행은 완화정책으로 회귀했다. 기록적인 경제확장 - 건강한 미국가계의 소비 - 는 경제가 금방 deeper downturn 국면으로는 안갈거같다. 결론은 미국주식과 EM debt (뭐여이게 이머징채권?)
회복성 raising. 포트폴리오 resilience 는 매크로 불확실성이 클때 중요하다. 일드가 낮아도 포폴에 정부채비중 늘려라.
미국주식+유럽국채+이머징채권 ?
흠
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